Are perps riskier than prediction markets?
Generally, yes. A prediction-market bet has a built-in worst case, the stake, while a perp's P&L moves continuously and can be magnified by leverage, so a bad position can lose faster. That's exactly why perps run inside the same caps, floors, and plain-text rules as everything else.
Why the risk profile differs
Buy a yes-share at 60¢ and your worst case is written on the ticket: −60¢. A perp has no ticket, the position gains or loses as the price moves, hour after hour, and leverage multiplies every move. Same honest market, faster consequences.
How the fund compensates
- Modest leverage or none Leverage only exists where your rules permit it, and the defaults are conservative.
- Tighter sizing and stops Perp positions are cut when the thesis breaks, not ridden down.
- Same ceilings Per-bet caps and total exposure limits count perps like everything else. You can never lose more than the wallet holds.
Risk scales with settings you control. If perps sit outside your comfort zone, say so, one rule in plain text, and your fund trades prediction markets only.
Riskier isn't a verdict, it's a dial
Perps done carelessly are how accounts blow up elsewhere. Perps done inside a frame, capped, stopped, explained, are simply a sharper tool. Which fund you run is your call, in your rules.