People are betting on all of this.
A live sample of what is trading on Polymarket this minute, sized by the money on it. Elections and rates, yes. Also the weather in New York, a rocket launch, the Oscars, and whether anyone confirms aliens this year. Each one shows the side being taken, its price, and what a winning share pays back.
The live board is not answering right now.
This page only ever shows real markets, so it will not invent any. Some countries block the venue, which can be the reason you are seeing this. Everything the board covers is written out just below, and you can try again in a moment.
What trades on the board
Thirteen families, and a market is simply any question with a clear answer, a deadline and a source that settles it. The map above shows what is live this minute. This is the territory it draws from.
Elections
Presidential and parliamentary races, primaries, individual seats, cabinet appointments, confirmation votes, whether a government shuts down before a date.
Geopolitics
Ceasefires, treaties, sanctions, alliance membership, summit outcomes, whether a border reopens.
Economics
Central bank decisions, inflation prints, growth and unemployment figures, recession calls, tariff changes.
Crypto
Price thresholds by a date, protocol upgrades, exchange listings, regulatory approvals, whether a token tops a ranking.
Stocks and business
Earnings beats, guidance, product launches, acquisitions, leadership changes, whether a private company files to go public.
Soccer
Match results, tournament winners, top scorer, qualification, goals thresholds.
US sports
Championship winners, division races, MVP awards, season win totals, playoff qualification.
Tennis and golf
Grand Slam winners, tournament fields, head to head outcomes, whether a seed reaches a round.
Weather and climate
Temperature records, hurricane landfalls, rainfall, snow on a given day, whether a year finishes as the hottest on record.
Pop culture
Best Picture, album of the year, the next actor cast in a franchise, box office thresholds, a chart position.
Internet and X
How many times a person will post in a week, whether a video passes a view count, follower milestones.
Science and space
Launch windows, mission milestones, model releases, approvals, prizes.
And then there is the strange corner
Whether aliens get confirmed this year. Whether a mythical creature is proven real. Whether we are living in a simulation. They trade small, they are rarely right, and the crowd finds them irresistible. On the map they keep a seat and a readable size on purpose, and the price shown is the longshot rather than the crowd’s side.
Each family rewards a different kind of reading, and hides a different trap. The full guide goes family by family, and the sources guide shows where the evidence lives.