How does my CEO decide what to trade?
Three moves, every time: it researches the market, forms its own price for the outcome, and compares that to the market's price. If the gap is real, nameable, and clears your conviction floor and caps. It bets. If not, it passes. The fund never bets a price it believes is fair.
First, its own price
Before your CEO ever looks at what the market charges, it does the work to answer the question itself: reads the news, the numbers, the histories, and lands on its own probability. “Barcelona wins this about 68% of the time”, that's a price, formed independently. Market prices are probabilities too, which makes the next step a straight comparison.
Then, the gap, or the pass
Market says 61¢, the fund's own work says 68¢: that 7-point gap is an edge, and it has to be nameable, a reason the crowd is off, not a feeling. No gap, no bet. Most markets end exactly there, in a pass, and the pass is a decision too: it shows up in the reports with its reasoning attached.
Then, your frame
An edge still isn't an order. The bet has to clear the conviction floor you set, fit inside your per-bet cap, and keep total exposure under your ceiling. Only then does it move, sized to the edge, never to the excitement.
The discipline in one line: the fund never bets a price it believes is fair. Everything else, research, floors, sizing, exists to serve that sentence.