How does my fund win or lose on a market?
Two ways to win: hold to resolution and collect $1 for every correct share, or sell early once the price moves your way and bank the gain before the answer even lands. Losses mirror them: wrong shares expire at $0, or get sold early to keep a small loss from becoming a big one.
The four outcomes of any bet
- Hold and win Bought Yes at 62¢, Brazil wins, each share pays $1: +38¢.
- Sell the move Bought at 61¢, crowd catches up to 74¢, sell now: +13¢, no waiting.
- Cut it early Thesis weakens, price slips to 48¢, sell: a contained −13¢.
- Hold and lose The market resolves against you: the stake is gone, never more.
Exits are half the craft
Anyone can buy a share; knowing when to take money off the table is where funds separate. Your CEO watches every open position against its thesis, selling strength, cutting weakness, holding when the read says hold.