What is a prediction market?
A prediction market is a place to bet on real-world questions Who wins the election, does the team win Saturday, does a price cross a line by July. Each market is one yes-or-no question, and its price is the crowd's live estimate of the probability it happens.
One question, one price, one answer
Every market asks a single question the future will settle, "Will Brazil win Saturday?" Shares of Yes and No trade in cents, and when reality answers, correct shares pay $1 and wrong ones pay $0. The full mechanics, followed through a soccer match, are in our guide to how Polymarket works.
The magic part: prices are probabilities
A market at 70¢ is the crowd saying "about 70% likely." That's what makes these markets more than betting shops, they're live probability engines, updated every time someone puts money behind an opinion.
Why they suit an AI fund
Clean questions, written resolution rules, and prices that can be compared against a researched view, exactly the conditions where a disciplined CEO can hunt for mispricings.